When I started my career in the 1990s, I worked as a software developer for a company that produced slot machines and casino systems. One day, a group of consultants popped up to our department. They came to tell us that our software development was not very efficient and that with new visual tools, the same work could be achieved much more effectively. They promised to redesign software for our latest gaming platform in six months with a couple of developers. We had previously taken two years with almost 20 people to do the same thing. Our management bought their story. So, they started to rewrite the software, and from then on, we all had to adapt to drag-and-drop visual state-machine development tools. 

The same is happening again. Low-code and citizen-development are trending again, and companies are actively selling their expensive tools allowing anyone to design software or automate tasks. Why have costly developers when you can teach your employees to manage their daily needs with simple drag-and-drop tools? The whole software industry will be changed again!

Office work automation (e.g. RPA tools) is one fashionable area citizen-developers have taken on. So, too, with data applications. Why have expensive data scientists when you can just offer low-code tools to anyone to get information and insight from raw data? I have even heard of those same low-code tools enabling individuals to make apps using their personal health data. Sounds nice?

Three months later, those consultants came back to us. They told us it didn’t make sense to redevelop the whole gaming platform software, but they could create a smaller piece to prove their case. So, it was agreed they would only develop new software with their model and tool in small components, starting with a device that recognized coins when the players entered them.

But is it so simple? Why are the world’s leading software companies in Silicon Valley paying $250,000 annually for good developers, if they can just take random guys from the streets (or at least offices) and get them to make software with low-code tools? Or why complain about a shortage of data scientists, if you can get any office assistant to find relevance from data with low-code tools.

Two more months (total time now five months) and the consultants came back to us. This time, they told it didn’t make sense so they would rewrite the code we had already done. They could write a manual on designing better quality software, and they could also sell their design tool to us so that we could use it to improve our software planning. 

Some people build their own home, and others use ready-made design drawings. But would you like to go to a skyscraper or a bridge designed by a ‘citizen civil engineer’? Or would you like to take citizen-pilot flight with an automated aircraft? Why is it necessary to have more expensive professional pilots?

I don’t mean we should have official accreditation to be a software developer, but it’s a fact that the most complex systems in the world nowadays are built with software. It is not simple to build complex critical systems. It is much more complicated than designing a skyscraper or a bridge. For construction, you have precise formulas to make calculations, but many structures of software solutions are so complex that you cannot have formulas or simple models to prove that they work. I have personally seen people with no experience or education, trying to understand how to develop software, especially robust software. It doesn’t work correctly; a study shows eleven of twelve citizen-developer projects fail.

There are tasks people can program easily. Some people make Excel macros for their own purposes. People make some simple tools to help them in daily tasks; they know how to use them, with no need to handle wrong data entries or particular situations. At the same time, it is not ideal to leave more complex software development to citizen-developers with these simplified tools.

It is also good to be clear with definitions. Sometimes low-code marketing uses examples, like design tools, that need no code at all. Low-code is a software development approach that requires little or simplified coding to build applications and processes. So, a drag-and-drop graphics design tool for end-users is not a low-code development tool until you want to convince your audience that it as a great example of low-code.

I was just listening to an organization that has invested in citizen-development tools and used hundreds of hours to teach thousands of their employees how to use these tools. But they can still only do basic things. The management admitted, they would not let them make any mission-critical or important solutions and processes or implement more complex software.

Finally, after six months in my early career case, the consultants could implement no software with their visual tool. They came to us with a manual for better coding and organized a half-day workshop. To be honest, after all these years, I don’t remember too much from that session, but one of their claims was that visual tools are better than software code, because people are naturally visual. Our developers disagreed with them because they didn’t feel these visual tools worked for serious programming needs. After the workshop, we never heard from those consultants, and we continued to make machines with professional programming languages.

Those consultants were paid for those six months and their design tool, then they found the next customer (victim). The same is going on again; companies are buying software licenses and training to get all their people to make software. Don’t get me wrong; I believe software development tools and methods are developing, and many tools can help. But it is crucial to understand the difference between personal tools to automate something or make Excel macros and making reliable software that can run many essential systems and processes. The reality is the world needs more professional software developers and more reliable software. We must not mix professional software development and its tools. With some simplified tools, every office worker can make some macros or automate their own simple tasks; they are totally different domains.

The article first appeared on Disruptive Asia.

This is normally the time to make predictions for the coming year. Typically, the focus is on tech and business trends and evaluate which ones could get next year’s timing right. This time it’s different. In 2020 the pandemic was a disruptor of normal trends. It stopped some businesses, changed some and accelerated others. So, what we can expect to see when vaccines hopefully turn the tide of the pandemic?

If we briefly summarize 2020, it accelerated digital businesses by a few years, stopped travel and hospitality businesses, moved many activities from bricks and mortar to online and taught people to use many new tech tools. In 2021 the questions are, which of these trends will continue, which will turn back time to pre-pandemic and which businesses have changed forever.

One or two years won’t change human beings fundamentally. People can learn to use new services and products, but basic needs don’t change. Let’s take, for example, how people have adapted to food delivery services, but they still want to meet other human beings. People also look for easy solutions but usually hesitate to do things they don’t understand or haven’t tested. But home delivery and Zoom meetings, because they had to be adopted, became everyday options, that we quickly learnt to use effectively. 

So, what’s the outlook for 2021? We must think about the things people have learned in 2020 and also what they missed in 2020. Then we must also consider which technologies and services took a leap in 2020. We can also evaluate, which trends started before the pandemic, and those that the pandemic has accelerated. Based on this, we can assess a little more accurately what we can expect to see.

Digital services are helping people in many situations. Virtual meetings help us save time and money. Digital signatures make it easier to handle agreements and use legal services. Home delivery makes grocery shopping more straightforward and faster. Sometimes it is more effective to work from home. These have been obvious changes in 2020, but they are still good examples of trends that will continue after the pandemic.

Airlines, hotels, restaurants and many other hospitality services took quite a beating in 2020. Many people have changed their views on travel and eating out, and are questioning if they need to take so many flights in future. This part is probably much more complicated. People still want to see new places, see other people, and break from daily routines and environment. But at the same time, many businesses are probably having second thoughts on the value of business travel and physical meetings.

People now see the value of physical meetings and hospitality services in a new light, having lived without them for so long. People have also noticed they can work just as effectively from home or remote places. Nevertheless, data indicates that flight bookings for late 2021 are strong and that new business models, like monthly subscription for flights, are emerging.

Retail businesses have suffered most from lockdowns and restrictions. Many retailers, even well-known, long-established department stores and chains, are closing down. But it would be a mistake to think the pandemic has been the only reason for this. Bricks and mortar retail has been in trouble for years, and surprisingly, why it has taken such a long time for some customers to adopt online shopping and use home delivery services.

The COVID situation has not only impacted consumer businesses. B2B business has also changed. We haven’t had trade shows, conferences and meetups to find new products, services and contacts. This has pushed the adoption of ‘self-service’ online sales channels, but at the same time, traditional ’face-to-face’ sales are vital for most B2B businesses. There is no doubt that B2B companies have also suffered, and there will certainly be bankruptcies after the pandemic when companies are forced to take a reality check.

Based on the above, here are some of my predictions for 2021:

1. Travel, hospitality and service businesses will increase when the pandemic restrictions and risks are over. This doesn’t mean all companies in the sector will survive or that the services will be the same as before 2020. Still, it will be an excellent time for new companies to enter the sector, acquire some existing businesses and innovate new business models.
2. More retail business will go online, and high street stores will continue to fail. 
3. More services will go digital and online, but it doesn’t mean that all new digital services will be profitable. Competition will be fierce in many areas, and companies will need to achieve significant volumes to survive. Many will need to go global to achieve this. 
4. A more significant opportunity than digital consumer services will be enabling components that make it easier, safer and more effective for consumers to use services. These will include better utilization of data for consumers, better trust in services and third parties, and solutions to improve customer experiences (e.g. VR/AR for shopping, better platforms for remote education and better solutions to manage home deliveries).
5. Commercial real estate business will go through significant changes. Many retail stores will disappear, office space needs will change, and new requirements will emerge. For example, companies will need new office space types to accommodate people that work from home, occasionally coming to the office, something more akin to ‘hot desks’ than cubicles.
6. E-commerce operations may need to enhance customer experience and marketing by utilising showroom type places, where customers can physically see the products and make orders, and where companies can promote their brands. Coffee shops and restaurants will also need more space to accommodate social distancing.
7. People will become more aware of health and wellbeing issues, and wearable devices to give them more data. This will create many new digital services to improve wellbeing and monitor health and get remote healthcare services when needed.

These are just some examples of what we are expecting, but they illustrate the changes and trends we are going to see after the pandemic. Of course, the biggest question is whether mass vaccination will speed the return to some normality or are we going to encounter some new surprises. Anyway, we must always prepare for the next phase in business and be ready when it comes.

The article first appeared on Disruptive Asia.